Mismeasured personal saving and the permanent income hypothesis

Is it possible to forecast using poorly measured data? According to the permanent income hypothesis, a low personal saving rate should predict rising future income (Campbell, 1987). However, the U.S. personal saving rate is initially poorly measured and has been repeatedly revised upward in benchmark revisions. The authors use both conventional and real-time estimates of the personal saving rate in vector autoregressions to forecast real disposable income; using the level of the personal saving rate in real time would have almost invariably made forecasts worse, but first differences of the personal saving rate are predictive. They also test the lay hypothesis that a low personal saving rate has implications for consumption growth and find no evidence of forecasting ability.

Bench Mark Revisions and the U.S. Personal Saving Rate

Initially published estimates of the personal saving rate from 1965 Q3 to 1999 Q2, which averaged 5.3 percent, have been revised up 2.8 percentage points to 8.1 percent, as we document. We show that much of the initial variations in personal saving rate across time was pure noise. Nominal disposable personal income has been revised upward an average of 8.3 percent: one dollar in twelve was originally missing. We use both conventional and real-time estimates of the personal saving rate to forecast real disposable income, gross domestic product, and personal consumption and show that using the personal saving rate in real-time would have almost invariably made forecasts worse. Thus while the personal saving rate may contain information about later consumption once we know the true saving rate, as Campbell (1987) and Ireland(1995) have shown, as a practical matter, noise in the U.S. personal saving rate makes it uninformative for forecasting purposesPermanent Income, Saving, Real-time data

Critical velocity ionisation in substellar atmospheres

The observation of radio, X-ray and Hα emission from substellar objects indicates the presence of plasma regions and associated high-energy processes in their surrounding envelopes. This paper numerically simulates and characterises Critical Velocity Ionisation, a potential ionisation process, that can efficiently generate plasma as a result of neutral gas flows interacting with seed magnetized plasmas. By coupling a Gas-MHD interactions code (to simulate the ionisation mechanism) with a substellar global circulation model (to provide the required gas flows) we quantify the spatial extent of the resulting plasma regions, their degree of ionisation and their lifetime for a typical substellar atmosphere. It is found that the typical average ionisation fraction reached at equilibrium (where the ionisation and recombination rates are equal and opposite) ranges from 10-5 to 10-8, at pressures between 10-1 and 10-3 bar, with a trend of increasing ionisation fraction with decreasing atmospheric pressure. The ionisation fractions reached as a result of Critical Velocity Ionisation are sufficient to allow magnetic fields to couple to gas flows in the atmosphere

Anti-aliasing with stratified B-spline filters of arbitrary degree

A simple and elegant method is presented to perform anti-aliasing in raytraced images. The method uses stratified sampling to reduce the occurrence of artefacts in an image and features a B-spline filter to compute the final luminous intensity at each pixel. The method is scalable through the specification of the filter degree. A B-spline filter of degree one amounts to a simple anti-aliasing scheme with box filtering. Increasing the degree of the B-spline generates progressively smoother filters. Computation of the filter values is done in a recursive way, as part of a sequence of Newton-Raphson iterations, to obtain the optimal sample positions in screen space. The proposed method can perform both anti-aliasing in space and in time, the latter being more commonly known as motion blur. We show an application of the method to the ray casting of implicit procedural surfaces

Ionisation and discharge in cloud-forming atmospheres of brown dwarfs and extrasolar planets

Brown dwarfs and giant gas extrasolar planets have cold atmospheres with rich chemical compositions from which mineral cloud particles form. Their properties, like particle sizes and material composition, vary with height, and the mineral cloud particles are charged due to triboelectric processes in such dynamic atmospheres. The dynamics of the atmospheric gas is driven by the irradiating host star and/or by the rotation of the objects that changes during its lifetime. Thermal gas ionisation in these ultra-cool but dense atmospheres allows electrostatic interactions and magnetic coupling of a substantial atmosphere volume. Combined with a strong magnetic field , a chromosphere and aurorae might form as suggested by radio and x-ray observations of brown dwarfs. Non-equilibrium processes like cosmic ray ionisation and discharge processes in clouds will increase the local pool of free electrons in the gas. Cosmic rays and lighting discharges also alter the composition of the local atmospheric gas such that tracer molecules might be identified. Cosmic rays affect the atmosphere through air showers in a certain volume which was modelled with a 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer code to be able to visualise their spacial extent. Given a certain degree of thermal ionisation of the atmospheric gas, we suggest that electron attachment to charge mineral cloud particles is too inefficient to cause an electrostatic disruption of the cloud particles. Cloud particles will therefore not be destroyed by Coulomb explosion for the local temperature in the collisional dominated brown dwarf and giant gas planet atmospheres. However, the cloud particles are destroyed electrostatically in regions with strong gas ionisation. The potential size of such cloud holes would, however, be too small and might occur too far inside the cloud to mimic the effect of, e.g. magnetic field induced star spots

Impaired interferon-γ responses, increased interleukin-17 expression, and a tumor necrosis factor–α transcriptional program in invasive aspergillosis

This article is available open access through the publisher’s website. Copyright @ 2009 Oxford University Press.Background - Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is the most common cause of death associated with fungal infection in the developed world. Historically, susceptibility to IA has been associated with prolonged neutropenia; however, IA has now become a major problem in patients on calcineurin inhibitors and allogenic hematopoetic stem cell transplant patients following engraftment. These observations suggest complex cellular mechanisms govern immunity to IA. Methods - To characterize the key early events that govern outcome from infection with Aspergillus fumigatus we performed a comparative immunochip microarray analysis of the pulmonary transcriptional response to IA between cyclophosphamide-treated mice and immunocompetent mice at 24 h after infection. Results - We demonstrate that death due to infection is associated with a failure to generate an incremental interferon-γ response, increased levels of interleukin-5 and interleukin-17a transcript, coordinated expression of a network of tumor necrosis factor–α-related genes, and increased levels of tumor necrosis factor–α. In contrast, clearance of infection is associated with increased expression of a number genes encoding proteins involved in innate pathogen clearance, as well as apoptosis and control of inflammation. Conclusion - This first organ-level immune response transcriptional analysis for IA has enabled us to gain new insights into the mechanisms that govern fungal immunity in the lung.The BBSRC, CGD Research Trust, and the MRC